Saturday,
November 14, 2009
Can
Obama Govern?
- A little more than a year after he was elected to the most
powerful position in the world, the answer is unequivocal - No.
And, really, we shouldn't be surprised. People who are good at
one thing are rarely good at something else. For example, we
really don't expect that an NFL quarterback can be a good running
back, or receiver, and certainly not a defensive linebacker.
Still, we oftentimes will try to project competence across differing
areas. Candidate Barack Obama showed us his superior rhetorical
skills. From that, many projected that aptitude onto the ability
to govern. And, that hasn't worked out. Obama seems to
relish the idea of being President
without really having any serious interest in governing in a manner
that leaves us better off after his term(s) in office than we were
before he started. He jets off to Copenhagen to make an Olympics
pitch. He travels around the world speechifying on what is wrong
with America. He takes his family on a vacation to the Grand
Canyon and Martha's Vineyard. He seems mesmerized by the spectacle
of the presidency and not so intrigued by its hope and promise.
He dallies on the war in Afghanistan. He pushes us into more
dependence on the government. He is reckless with how the
government should spend taxpayer money, be it on the stimulus or
health care, or, coming soon, the cap and trade boondoggle. He
associates himself with the most radical of ideologues. Yet, I
recall his stirring words during the campaign, when he implored us to
work together to solve problems, when he promised "change we can
believe in," when he was adamant about bipartisanship and
transparency.
And, those things have not happened. He did not take on the
mantle of the stern schoolmaster and force the cantankerous children
that populate the House and Senate to sit down and chart an agreeable
course into the future. Instead, it has been the Democrat
leadership that has taken control of the process and is steering us
into disaster and calamity.
Now, I don't really believe that Obama disagrees with the other Dems
in terms of the policies being pursued. But, that is not what he
promised during the campaign. But, why should we have expected
any different? He had not a shred of governing experience.
He only had experience as a successful campaigner and articulate
speaker. The conclusion that must be drawn, and it is not a
surprising conclusion, is that Obama is a typical politician. He
is not exceptionally gifted at telling the truth, nor at rising above
the fray of politics-as-usual. While one may argue that the hope
and promise was our fantasy projection onto Obama, I still remember
his words. And, they were not words I put into his mouth.
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Thursday,
December 17, 2009
The
GC Permit Shuffle
- Last month, the Park Service announced a new
permit policy for backpacking in the Grand Canyon. It
eliminates the walk-in request, in favor of mailed/faxed requests, for
the first month that permits are available. For example, on June
1st, one can apply for a permit to do a trip in October. Because
the park is deluged with fax requests on the first of each month
(well, not every month), if you walk in on the first, or even on the
second, day of the month, you are likely to get your request filled
well in advance of all the faxed requests. That will change on
February 1, 2010. Now, only faxed requests will be taken during
June for October hikes. Walk-in requests will not be accepted
until July 1st, for October hikes. [Well, the walk-in will be
treated like a faxed request - drop it off and they'll add it to the
pile.] There were a few letters printed in the local paper
complaining about this policy change. I thought to write a
letter as well, but approached the editor about possibly writing a
longer commentary. He agreed, and my "guest editorial"
ran in the Arizona
Daily Sun on Wednesday, November 25th, the same day I left for a
six day backpacking trip in the canyon.
Reservation system
wasteful and inefficient
Wednesday, November 25,
2009
by Dennis Foster
Is the existing
system of issuing backpacking permits at the Grand Canyon fair?
Of course not.
Is the proposed change, to a random lottery on the first of each
month, going to be fair? Of course not.
Will it be better, or worse? It depends.
Someone from New Jersey who faxes in their permit request will
now have a better chance of getting the itinerary they want.
Someone like me, who lives in Flagstaff and who made a lifestyle
choice 20 years ago to forgo higher income opportunities
elsewhere, will find it harder to get the itinerary that I want.
It should not surprise anyone that the person in New Jersey
thinks that this new system is fair.
While "fairness" is in the eye of the beholder, what
we can say about the new system is that it will be inefficient,
will waste resources, and will likely get worse over time.
The Park Service's proposal for hiking permits seems to be
leading them down the same path that they have taken in issuing
Colorado River permits. That lottery system was instituted in
2006 when their wait list for river permits had grown over the
years to 40 times greater than the annual supply. Additionally,
the Park Service will only allow recreational users to run the
river once per year.
Not surprisingly, these kinds of rules and regulations waste the
time, energy and effort of the applicants. But, park officials
don't bear these costs, so they tend to ignore them in their
policymaking.
Thankfully, when it comes to river running, there is still a
major allocation of river use to commercial enterprises and the
Park Service has allowed these trips to be priced at close to
their true market value. When I took a commercial river trip in
2002, I made reservations three months in advance. Another
couple made reservations a year in advance. And, one traveler
made his reservation only a few days in advance. That is one of
the beauties of a well-functioning free market. It shouldn't be
the case that only people who plan a year in advance can get a
reservation.
Conversely, the Park Service has dropped the ball when it comes
to how it oversees Xanterra's operation at Phantom Ranch.
Booking a cabin, or dorm space, requires you to play the phone
game 13 months in advance. If you are lucky enough to get
through, on the first of each month, you can be put on hold for
hours.
Economists call these schemes "non-price" rationing.
They are inefficient in that they not only allocate scarce
resources in a manner that perverts the incentive of individuals
to be productive and contributing members of society (i.e., by
seeking out jobs that pay well), but it also generates that
wasted time, energy and effort. In a world characterized by
scarcity, this allocation mechanism is reprehensible.
A more efficient system would be to price the resource at its
market clearing level. Then, you don't have to just hope for the
best in a lottery. [However, you could hook up with other
interested hikers, pool your money to buy an itinerary and have
a lottery among yourselves.] With a real pricing mechanism, the
most highly sought-after itineraries will command a high price
to determine who will get them.
A better solution would be to have the Park Service privatize
the management of the corridor campgrounds (Indian Garden,
Bright Angel, Cottonwood) and have them compete with each other.
I would expect quality and quantity would both increase. These
actions would truly help to accommodate the increasing demand
for a backcountry experience in the Grand Canyon.
Dennis Foster has a Ph.D. in economics, teaches at the
university level and has been hiking at the Grand Canyon since
1979.
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Some further
comments:
The
"fairness" issue.
This drives me nuts! The Grand
Canyon Hikers group on Yahoo was full of comments about how this
made the process more "fair" by making the odds more
equal. Nothing could be further from the truth! They only
see that they are getting better odds, hence that it must be
"fair." Really, it is all about greed, but people
usually don't want to admit that! I addressed this
issue before, when I noted that rarely do these people take a
holistic view of these matters. Which brings me to my next
point.
Changing
rules negates our choices.
The worst part of this kind of change is that it penalizes people who
have acted on the incentive structure created in the first
place. Maybe the old rule was "bad," but we have been
living with it for quite a while and have adapted. Now, the
time, energy, effort and money we have put into this adaptation is
made worthless. And, does anyone at the Park Service factor that
into their decision-making? Of course not.
A
market-based solution still "hurts" me.
Another point that few seem to get is that I am worse off with a
market solution. Prices rise, and I must compete with the
fictional backpacker from New Jersey for a permit. If he/she is
willing to pay more, they get the permit. That is quite likely
if it is their once-a-year trip to the canyon, versus being just one
of a half dozen trips I make annually. But, I understand the
"fairness" of such a system and am willing to support it,
even if it reduces my chances relative to the current system.
My
web rating was quite low.
I only got 1.4, out of 5, stars on the web, with an amazing 53 chiming
in. Too bad the web comments were down (while the paper migrates
to a new platform), otherwise I might have been able to get a lively
debate going here. I suspect that most of the negative scores
came from river runners that hate commercial outfits and wish that
they had a much smaller allocation. But, as I noted in my
commentary, if it wasn't for these commercial services, you'd probably
have to plan such a trip a year in advance, which is just wasteful.
Privatizing
would raise quality.
Absolutely! It certainly can't lower it! For years, I have
dreaded an overnight stay at the Bright Angel campground because the
restroom facilities are just atrocious. If these campgrounds
were private and competitive with one another, I don't think that
would be the case. Indeed, the restroom at Phantom Ranch is in
much better shape. Hmm . . . Lesson learned!
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Sunday,
December 27, 2009
 Hollow
Avatar
- The movie event of the season is the popular Avatar.
We saw the 3-D version at our local theater. Of course, it was
visually stunning. The 3-D effect is quite good and the special
effects are top notch. The story, on the other hand, was a
stinker. The whole "bad guy industrialist" versus the
"peaceful nature lover" is a tired theme, and not especially
poignant here. Better, on that score anyway, is Dances
with Wolves, although I'd even rate that as "thick" on
the sappiness scale.
There are, however, two major complaints I have with the storyline,
beyond the tired nature of the theme. While watching, I was
thinking that a prominent dimension was how a society with low/no
technology can't co-exist with a society that has a high level of
technology. Wouldn't the story have been better if James Cameron
had played this more as an inevitability? Of course (spoiler
alert!!), in the end, the "bad" guys lose, so that would
have to change. Still, I think that he could have done a better
job of invoking our pathos by making the humans seem less
"bad" and the aliens as less "noble."
Ambiguity on this score would make this a movie to remember instead of
one that will likely be soon forgotten.
But, there is a more fundamental shortcoming to this story. Upon
a little reflection, the Na'vi are a rather sad race. They seem
cool, but really it is only true insofar as Sully learns about these
new and different people. But, then what? What do they
do? They seem only to produce body decorations. They don't
have industry. No universities. No research and
development facilities. They are, at the core, intelligent
animals that refuse to use their intelligence.
Some have argued that the story is a metaphor for the clash of
cultures that occurred between Europeans and Native Americans.
But, really it is more like the "clash" between Europeans
and the buffalo.
Indeed, I was reminded of my trip to Antarctica. We visited many
penguin colonies. Instead of being struck by the awesome beauty
of nature I was more struck by the fact that their entire existence is
built around survival - breeding and eating. The Na'vi, at least
insofar as they were presented in the movie, likewise seemed to live
their lives the same way. Some may argue that they were living
in "harmony" with nature. But, that means
stagnation. No inventiveness. No intellectual
curiosity. None of the (best) attributes that we would ascribe
to our humanity. Maybe a better movie would have painted these
aliens as glorified plants, albeit with some intelligence. Then,
the moral conflict of how humans treat them would have been more
ambiguous.
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